Will the United States take action against Iran recently? Yesterday, the US State Department demanded that American citizens immediately leave Iran, and the market is concerned whether the US will take action against Iran in the near future. From a personal perspective, the answer is not very good in the near future. The logic is that military deployment is not yet in place and the intention to take action is uncertain. To elaborate: 1. Military deployment: Two weeks ago, in order to deal with Venezuela, the US military assembled an aircraft carrier battle group, an amphibious assault ship battle group, and a large number of Marine Corps in the Caribbean Sea. During the Iran Iraq conflict in June last year, the US military had two aircraft carrier battle groups in the Arabian Sea (Carl Vinson and Nimitz), as well as the Ford aircraft carrier battle group in the Mediterranean, which is equivalent to gathering three aircraft carrier battle groups around the Middle East. At the same time, there are also a large number of Arleigh Burke class destroyers and Ticondero cruisers accompanying. However, currently there is not a single aircraft carrier deployed by the US military in the waters surrounding the Middle East. The US military has three aircraft carriers on duty, two in the Asia Pacific region (Lincoln and Washington) and one in the Caribbean (Ford). The other seven aircraft carriers are under maintenance, except for George The Bush has just completed maintenance and is expected to be deployed, but it has not yet departed. Basically, for major US military operations, especially since Iran's strength is much stronger than Venezuela's, it is necessary to deploy aircraft carrier battle groups in advance. Aircraft carriers provide sustained air coverage, suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD), rapid response, and deterrence. Carrier based aircraft (F/A-18, F-35) are the key support for large-scale/sustained strikes. Land bases are easily vulnerable to missile attacks. Even if the US military kills the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Holy City Army, Soleimani, in 20 years, there is still an aircraft carrier battle group in the Middle East. Without a properly deployed aircraft carrier battle group, the probability of the US military taking action against Iran in the near future is actually very small. We can closely monitor the deployment dynamics of the US aircraft carrier, especially the recently completed maintenance of the George Bush. 2. Let's talk about the intention to take action again The US military has taken action twice in the past year: Operation Midnight Hammer in June 25, bombing Iran's nuclear facilities; At the beginning of the 26th year, we are determined to take action and launch a midnight raid to capture Maduro. They all have clear goals, act quickly, and do not drag their feet. They try their best to avoid large-scale ground attacks (heavy consumption, which Trump hates) Now Iran is not like Venezuela. Tehran is 500 kilometers away from the sea, and Caracas is only a dozen kilometers away. All the helicopters that capture Maduro can sneak in. There is a possibility of conducting a special assault on Tehran, but it is not significant. According to the latest report, it seems that Trump is still weighing various options. Personally, he thinks that the most likely thing to do in the future is surgical attacks, including precision attacks on Revolutionary Guard facilities, related non military targets (such as security institutions in Tehran), or network attacks to disable Iran's monitoring and communication systems, or to try to blow up key Iranian figures. The core is still to achieve long-term regime instability through short-term strikes, forcing Iran to make concessions to domestic opposition forces, and even deterring key figures of the Iranian regime from turning against the tide, accelerating regime collapse through external pressure to see if regime change can be achieved. Achieve the effect of weighing one or two pounds. Returning to what we discussed at the beginning, the military operations of the US military require the cooperation of aircraft carriers. Without the deployment of aircraft carriers, it is difficult to carry out military operations in the short term. First, let's take a look at the deployment of the aircraft carrier