qinbafrank|Feb 07, 2026 07:39
Why did Trump delay in negotiating with Iran in Oman? When it comes to the progress of negotiations between the United States and Iran in Oman, there has actually been no progress. The Iranian Foreign Minister's statement is a footnote: a consensus has been reached on continuing negotiations. Trump said to continue the talks next week. Seeing someone talking about Trump's constant TACO, I couldn't help but come back to talk about Iran and Trump's mentality:
1. Trump likes to make the best use of four or two to get the maximum benefit at the minimum cost. In the Midnight Hammer operation last June, Trump watched the Israeli army crush Iran's air defense and gain great advantages before he intervened - which made him believe that his participation in the war would not cost him.
Capturing Maduro was a special operation by him. On one hand, he persuaded some of Maduro's subordinates, and on the other hand, Caracas is located on the Caribbean coast, suitable for rapid action.
But now the internal turmoil in Iran has been suppressed by bullets, and the Revolutionary Guard is also highly vigilant. On January 22nd, it was said that even if the aircraft carrier battle group is deployed, the best opportunity to take action in the short term has actually been missed.
2. When Trump faced the Iranian issue, his biggest concern was the heavy casualties of US troops in the conflict. Once this happened, it would represent a devastating blow to the prestige of his US president - he was unwilling to bear the Iranian tragedy like Carter.
Therefore, although Trump deployed a large number of troops, the best result for him is to force Iran to reach a relatively favorable negotiation result through intimidation and blackmail, rather than risk entering a dangerous region with high political uncertainty - especially Iran is a country that is far more powerful and relatively well organized than Venezuela.
Trump didn't want to see the heavy casualties of the US military and get bogged down.
3. Another point here is that during the operation on June 12th last year, in order to intercept Iranian missiles, the Israeli Iron Dome system consumed a huge amount of inventory, and the US military also consumed a large number of anti-aircraft missiles. Although a considerable amount has been replenished, Iran's missile inventory has also been replenished and its production capacity has been increased.
Therefore, Trump was very cautious when he did not have the right time to defeat Iran.
4. Can both parties negotiate a resolution?
It's actually quite difficult. Before the Oman talks, the White House stated that achieving "zero nuclear capability" was a position repeatedly emphasized by US President Trump; Iran has made it clear during the negotiations that it will never accept the condition of 'no uranium enrichment activities'. The issue of uranium enrichment cannot be discussed, let alone restricting ballistic missiles. Currently, ballistic missiles are a more critical defense pillar for Iran than uranium enrichment.
So negotiations are actually difficult to come up with anything
5. How to view the development of the situation in Iran in the future
1) We have previously discussed the possibility of another internal turmoil in Iran, which could be a new opportunity;
2) Just like last year's 12 day war, Netanyahu couldn't help but go berserk and let Israel fight first, consuming Iran's defense capabilities by a considerable amount. If we can shut down the power grid, attack crude oil exports, and cause internal chaos in Iran. Maybe it's when Trump makes another move
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