Hong Hao's latest judgment: The semiconductor cycle will peak at the end of the year, and Bitcoin Q3 may be a buying point On July 30th, Hong Hao shared his latest insights on semiconductors, Bitcoin, gold, and commodities at the Binance VIP private event @ binancezh. Hong Hao's latest judgment: The semiconductor cycle will peak at the end of the year, and Bitcoin Q3 may be a buying point On July 30th, Hong Hao shared his latest insights on semiconductors, Bitcoin, gold, and commodities at the Binance VIP private event held in Hong Kong. Semiconductor/AI cycle judgment (core viewpoint): adjustment is not yet over -The semiconductor cycle may have peaked, similar to the peak of the Internet foam in March 2000 -The adjustment window may continue until the end of August, and the market may experience a double-digit rebound in the short term, but the market is still deleveraging. -The next two to three weeks are an important observation period, and the true bottom is expected by the end of 2026. -Semiconductor bottom fishing should be cautious and alert to the "chart fitting trap" (simple analogies under different macro backgrounds may have deviations). BTC and Cryptocurrency: Q3 to Q4 welcome critical window -Optimistic about the transition between Q3 and Q4; After this round of adjustment, there will be better buying points. -There is no universal point recommendation for bottom fishing, you need to grasp the time window by yourself. -Suggest reassessing the market around November and adjusting positions when the timing is appropriate -Long term bullish view on BTC: currency release accelerates, future target sees $1 million. Gold and commodities: AI may drive inflation -Long term bullish on gold, with a target of $10000 per ounce. -Recommend configuring bulk commodities (associated with storage/data center requirements, inseparable). -The possibility brought by AI is not deflation, but inflation driven by capital expenditure and resource demand. -Optimistic about a new super cycle for gold and commodities. Asset allocation: Investors in the cryptocurrency industry should also diversify their risks -Young investors should not only hold cryptocurrency assets, but gradually allocate to gold, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, storage, and commodities. -Stablecoins help expand the usage scenarios of US dollar assets and lower the global investment threshold. -On chain stocks and 24-hour trading can improve global price discovery efficiency and make asset pricing more open. The most important thing for young people is to participate in the cycle -Investment framework: Understanding macro cycles and geopolitical situations, rather than guessing point positions (solid logical sorting of major cycles) -Any prediction has boundaries, and investors should remain patient and respectful. -Encourage young people to bravely participate and invest in themselves: "What are young people afraid of? They must bravely participate -The core is still cyclical thinking: understanding trends, controlling risks, and following the trend. *The above content is compiled based on the sharing of on-site participants and subsequent social media discussions. Specific opinions are subject to Hong Hao's public statements*