Today, the core is to clarify this matter: it is neither a clear bullish market nor a clear bearish market right now. If you want to make directional trades, you can keep waiting; if you are eager to participate, range grid trading is more suitable for the current market than chasing up or selling down.

Let's first talk about how the 24% rise in August came about. The driving factors behind it were actually analyzed thoroughly last week. Initially, there was an acceleration driven by short covering, followed by ETFs and incremental funds supporting it. Additionally, with a shift in macro expectations, several forces came together, which pushed the market up so high.

First, give a general direction: in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, while the long-term logic hasn’t changed; BTC will eventually push for an all-time high, just not right now.

Today, I will guide everyone step by step to thoroughly understand a highly practical trend trading strategy, specifically designed to accurately capture the rise and fall rhythm of BTC market trends. Old followers should be quite familiar with this; it is the EMA bullish and bearish arrangement strategy that I have been using all along. Besides that, I will share a few EMA practical tips that are privately kept in our research institute, which are rarely known by ordinary people, and their practicality is maximized.

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Has the bull really returned? The market has actually not been consistent in the past few days: at snapshot, BTC reported at 78,826 USD, a slight drop of 0.13% for the day; ETH reported at 2,491.9 USD, instead rising 1.33% for the day; HYPE reported at 81.573 USD, with a decrease of 0.49% for the day. The strong upward trend is still there.

The STH-RP indicator is regarded by many analysts as the dividing line between bull and bear markets. The logic is simple: once the price reaches the breakeven point, short-term positions that cannot hold will panic and exit, so in a bear market, it is always "pulling back once it approaches the cost line, and then pulling back again when it gets close," repeatedly exhausting investors.

The contract can quickly push the market up with leverage, but the money flowing into the ETF is actually entering to buy spot assets. In the future, when faced with such a rapid increase, remember a simple judgment method: don't just look at whether the price has risen; see if money has followed in alongside the rising price. If the price rises but funds are flowing out, then you need to be more cautious; if the price rises and ETF funds are still continuously flowing back in, at least it indicates one thing: this is not just a passive increase caused by short sellers being forced out; indeed, there is

Next, we will track several major developments from the United States. The Senate's voting actions in mid-September will be monitored, focusing on the progress of legislative bills. On the Treasury side, the focus will be on the direction of U.S. Treasury yields. The U.S. Treasury has officially announced that starting from September 9, it will expand long-term Treasury bond repurchase operations, with plans extending to the refinancing window of November 4 this quarter. Looking ahead, we will see whether the repurchase scale will continue to increase and whether funds from the Treasury account will be used to support the bond market. If long-term yields remain high, it indicates that the market is still...

The U.S. retail environment is cooling down, and giants like Walmart are reminding the market that consumers are not as strong as imagined. Consumption in China is also relatively weak. However, assets like gold, BTC, and copper are continually pushing upwards. As of now, China has increased its gold reserves by 60 tons, bringing the total holdings to a record 2,366 tons. In just May and June, China purchased about 88 tons of gold through the over-the-counter market, which exceeds the total annual purchases reported by officials so far this year. Therefore, China's gold purchasing volume far surpasses.

Today in the live broadcast, we will discuss a metric that many new friends tend to overlook - trading volume. It is the key figure that helps you determine whether a trend has strength or not. Even if there is a 10% increase, why can some markets soar upward while others only rise for two days before reversing? The difference largely lies in the trading volume.

Because when short positions are liquidated, it is necessary to buy BTC to close the position. A large number of shorts concentrated in the same price area can easily create a chain reaction: price increases → triggering liquidation → shorts forced to buy → price continues to rise, which is what we commonly refer to as a short squeeze. The more shorts are hunted down, the more aggressively the price rises. Therefore, we monitor the liquidation price of addresses, which is essentially looking for areas of concentrated liquidity.

A deeper logic is that the direction of regulation has changed. In the future, there will be more quality real projects that directly issue tokens on the blockchain, no longer following the previous model of vaporware - it might be energy companies supported by ongoing real business, or various types of traditional assets. In summary, the SEC's regulatory direction can be encapsulated in one sentence: the US stock market and the cryptocurrency space are accelerating their integration.