Can Gold Hold $4,000? Speculative Funds Retreat, but Long-Term Buying Remains

According to Yahoo Finance, despite the pressure from a stronger dollar and rising U.S. real interest rates, UBS remains optimistic about the medium- to long-term outlook for gold prices. The bank expects gold prices to find support around $4,000 per ounce and rise to $5,400 by September 2027. UBS believes that the divergence between short-term speculative fund reductions and long-term allocation demand is key to understanding the current gold price trend. UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo pointed out that rising real interest rates and a strong dollar have increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Recently, non-commercial traders have reduced their net long positions in gold futures and options, further adding downward pressure on prices. However, gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings remain resilient, with continued inflows in recent weeks, indicating that some investors have not simultaneously exited the gold market.