Murphy
Murphy|10月 05, 2026 06:37
In the past 5 years, there have been 6 instances where 1-month ATM IV dropped to 35% or below. Here they are: 1. Early January 2023: End of the bear market, first wave of rally. 2. August–October 2023: Transition from bear to bull market, bull market kicks off. 3. August–September 2025: Bull market peaks, first wave of decline. 4. January 2026: Bear market rebound peaks, rapid drop follows. 5. May 2026: Bear market rebound peaks, rapid drop follows. 6. August 2026: End of the bear market, first wave of rally. Each time, it happened right before a critical turning point in the market. And now, it’s the 7th time... I’ve marked the last 4 corresponding time points on DVOL (Deribit’s BTC Volatility Index-based derivatives), so it should be more intuitive for everyone to see. After September 2025: +75% After January 2026: +133% After May 2026: +61% After August 2026: +40% Which one didn’t present an opportunity? Do you really have to bet on long or short? “The boundaries of wealth are defined by cognition.” The value of this statement must be as high as a three- or four-story building. (The above is for demonstration purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please approach rationally.)
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