Phyrex|Sep 29, 2026 08:19
During the Asian session today, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is still hovering around 5.23%, marking its highest level since 2007. The pressures of energy inflation and U.S. debt persist, with investors demanding higher returns to hold long-term Treasuries.
On the U.S.-Iran front, both sides communicated with mediators on Monday, and follow-up discussions are centered around a revised version of Iran's proposed seven-day plan. Iran's foreign minister stated they are still waiting for the U.S. to respond to the latest conditions for a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Trump publicly denied overnight that the U.S. had offered to lift sanctions or unfreeze funds for Iran.
Oil prices continue to rise slowly due to supply concerns. Although Middle Eastern crude exports have partially resumed, some shipments still rely on ship-to-ship transfers and other arrangements, which are less efficient and more costly, leaving a gap to normal supply levels.
Given this situation, even if oil prices don’t surge further, staying at high levels for an extended period will continue to impact transportation, production, and daily living costs. If these costs keep passing through to other goods and services, the Fed will face increased pressure to tighten policy further (raising the likelihood of rate hikes).
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield staying around 5.23% means long-term financing costs are already putting pressure on the economy. It will become more expensive for businesses to borrow new funds or refinance maturing debt, and household loan burdens will also increase. For U.S. stocks and bitcoin:native, higher Treasury yields raise the bar for taking on risk, as investors will need to see better return prospects before increasing their risk exposure.
The most important thing today is whether the U.S. is willing to engage in negotiations with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s foreign minister has publicly stated that they hope the U.S. can provide a clear answer by Tuesday.
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