A Note Before the Core PCE Release Tonight at 8:30 PM, the Fed will release its most important core PCE data. Following the Fed's policy meeting early this morning, Warsh's Q&A session didn't provide any significant data, so the market will be paying close attention to this data. However, I personally believe the market has already largely priced in a December rate hike, so any negative news from this data is already anticipated. In simpler terms, if the September core PCE increase is already widely expected, then the result will be a December rate hike by the Fed. Since a December rate hike is also widely expected, I believe that unless the data is exceptionally bad, there shouldn't be a major problem. Looking at the data itself, the previous value was 3%, the market expectation was 3.1%, and the Cleveland Fed's expectation was 3.05% (3.1%). This means that if it's 3.1% or lower, it will be good news for the market, beneficial for the continued rebound of US stocks and Bitcoin. However, if the rate is higher than 3.1%, but not significantly higher, such as 3.2%, then while it will bring market pessimism, the impact of this pessimism will not be too significant, at most short-term. This is because the impact is mainly to increase the probability of a December rate hike, which is not a major concern, unless it is exceptionally high, such as reaching 3.4% or higher. In that case, the possibility of the Fed raising rates by 50 basis points at once cannot be ruled out (normally it's 25 basis points). Therefore, the best data is less than or equal to 3.1%, and the worst data is greater than 3.4%. Similarly, there's the monthly rate data. The previous value was 0.2%, the market expectation was 0.3%, and the Cleveland Fed's expectation was 0.28% (0.3%). This means that if it's less than or equal to 0.3%, it's positive; if it's greater than 0.5%, it's negative. A @Gate account for more market insights.