Daan Crypto Trades|Sep 16, 2026 15:15
FOMC Rate Decision in 2 hours. Hike is priced in for 90%+
Market now also pricing in 4+ hikes in total. Up from just 1 in June. The question is if the Fed's dot plot actually moves up that much in just 3 months, I doubt it.
In the end it will come down to how the presser goes and how the Fed sees the months going forward. The more certainty there is the better it will be for risk assets. The long end of the bond yield curve needs some confidence inflation will be tackled. That's why it "wants" a hike now.
Risk assets will be looking for a more "one and done" kind of message with this hike. A hike today, and maybe one more early 2027 with a hold after would already be more dovish than the current hikes being priced in.
If for some reason they hold rates, I'd expect a quick pump into downside after that. As it would just make the long end yields keep rising higher, putting pressure on all markets.
All in all I think the crypto market especially should start trading more "normal" again after all is done today. We had two big events with lots of positioning and guessing into it.
After today we will just go back to our regular way of things.
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