Fed Chair Walsh just locked in the probability of an October rate hike❗️ Fed Chair Walsh said something the Fed hasn’t said in 70 years: 'We’re not doing that anymore.' 'That,' refers to giving advance signals or policy previews. From Greenspan to Bernanke, from Yellen to Powell, the Fed’s core tool has never been just interest rates—it’s been managing expectations. By dropping hints in advance, they let the market move first, and then the Fed follows. Walsh just took that tool away. He said: 'This is a new chapter for the Fed.' But look at the actual impact of his speech: The dollar dropped, and the probability of an October rate hike plummeted from 45% to 17%❗️ He didn’t send out a dovish signal, but the market heard it as dovish. That’s the most savage part. In the past, the Fed controlled the market by 'dropping hints.' Now, Walsh is using 'no hints' to make the market guess. Guessing means uncertainty. Uncertainty means volatility. The October 27 FOMC meeting is less than a week before the midterm elections. Whether they hike or not, it’s going to be politically scrutinized. Walsh took away the tool of expectation management, but the market won’t stop speculating. He just turned 'the Fed tells the market' into 'the market guesses for itself.' You think this is 'the end of advance signaling.' In reality, it’s shifting the blame for volatility onto the market. So, what’s your guess for the October 28 FOMC meeting? Will the Fed hike rates? Or stay put?