[The Probability of a Fed Rate Hike This Week Rises to 92.4%] According to Golden Finance, on September 15, CME's 'FedWatch' tool indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in September is 7.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 92.4%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged by October is 4%, with a 52% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike and a 44% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike.