Brian Bingham (GS Short Macro Trading): “The Fed is now in the most paradoxical of all positions, beholden to a single data print and potentially reactive to the rounding on the ECO screen… Warsh told the market in his first press conference that he didn’t want to focus on the number to the right of the decimal point, but now it’s the number to the right of that one that will be the determinant. Waller’s speech on Thursday was surprisingly and overtly dovish, confirming our view that the Board skews heavily if not unanimously dovish relative to the regional presidents, but offered little new information beyond implicitly confirming a 30bp core CPI will merit a hike.  The market appears to be penciling the over/under at 25, but we struggle to see a meaningful rally on an in-line 20bp core print following this week’s jobs report; in a world where the meeting goes in pricing greater than 50% chance of a hike, the risk of the bond market interpreting a hold as a policy error seem far greater than the harm of hiking into above-target inflation.”(zerohedge)