HTX DeepThink: US Japan tightening may resonate, stocks and currencies face synchronous deleveraging risk According to TechFlow, on October 9th, Chloe, a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the core contradiction of global risk assets has shifted from whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in October to the duration of high interest rates in the United States, the normalization of Japan's monetary policy, and the potential withdrawal of global leveraged funds. St. Louis Fed President Mussalem stated that further policy tightening may still be necessary in the next 6 to 9 months. Although the market expects a pause in October and another interest rate hike in December, US bond yields remain high and the liquidity environment has not improved as a result, putting pressure on US stock valuations and cryptocurrency assets. BTC fell below $83000, reflecting a significant decrease in the willingness to allocate funds in a high interest rate environment. If the US inflation data continues to exceed expectations in mid October, the probability of a rate hike in December may further increase, pushing up the real yield of US bonds. In the short term, attention should be paid to the level of acceptance around $80000. If the spot ETF continues to flow out and cannot regain a stable position at $83000, BTC may further test the $76000-78000 range; ETH and altcoins have higher leverage levels and weaker liquidity, making deleveraging risks more apparent. The Bank of Japan may become a risk of being undervalued in late October. As Japan gradually withdraws from its ultra loose policy, the cost of yen financing has risen, and the carry trades that used to borrow low interest yen to allocate risky assets such as US stocks are facing liquidation pressure. Once the Japanese yen rapidly appreciates, investors may be forced to sell their US dollar assets to repay their Japanese yen liabilities, resulting in a negative feedback of "yen appreciation, asset decline, and leveraged liquidation". The market volatility in August 2024 has demonstrated the amplification effect of this mechanism. If the US dollar falls rapidly below 155 against the Japanese yen, it may indicate an increase in the risk of interest rate hedging, but it still needs to be confirmed in conjunction with cross asset volatility and fund flow. In terms of the US stock market, the mid October earnings season will be an important watershed. The AI industry chain still has capital expenditures and profit support, but high valuation technology stocks are extremely sensitive to real interest rates, and cryptocurrency assets that lack profit support and rely more on new liquidity may face greater pressure. Overall, the market tends to experience weak fluctuations and technical rebounds before testing the low point again. If US inflation falls, US bond yields decline, and the Japanese yen remains stable, BTC and Nasdaq still have opportunities for temporary recovery; If the high interest rates in the United States resonate with the rapid appreciation of the Japanese yen, a new round of synchronized deleveraging of stocks and currencies may occur in late October. Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.