水博乱乱|Aug 12, 2026 11:46
Waiting for the CPI...
Same old routine, mainly focusing on July's core month-over-month rate.
Last month, we unexpectedly got 0%. This month, the forecast is 0.2%.
But we still need to keep an eye on the numbers after the decimal point (e.g., 0.16% is also 0.2%, and 0.24% is also 0.2%, but their impact on the market is different).
Wrote a script to pull the data in real-time at 8:30 and calculate this for me.
The second thing to watch is the core goods month-over-month rate and the core services month-over-month rate.
Who pushed the core month-over-month rate from last month's 0% to the forecasted 0.2%?
If it's driven by core goods, that's fine—it’s probably just the effect of tariffs.
But if it's driven by core services, that's not good—it indicates sticky inflation.
Let’s wait. Once the 8:30 data comes in, I’ll update the results...
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