星球日报|Jul 08, 2026 14:07
[Polymarket: 'WTI Crude Oil Will Rise to $80 by July 2026' Probability Reaches 47%, Up 28% in 24 Hours]
Monitoring by the PPP prediction market tool shows that the probability of 'WTI Crude Oil will rise to $80 by July 2026' on Polymarket has reached 47%, up 28% in the past 24 hours. Today, Trump stated that a large-scale attack on Iran might be launched. As the 60-day ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran teeters on the brink of collapse, oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has become 'virtually stagnant.'
Kpler senior oil analyst Navin Das noted that since the U.S. and Iran reached a 60-day ceasefire agreement on June 17, the average daily number of oil tankers passing through has been approximately 32. This figure is nearly three times the daily average during the conflict period (February) up until the agreement on June 17, though it remains significantly below pre-conflict levels.
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