The mid line price of the pancake briefly broke through the previous low point and then recovered, but the pulling force was weak and the trading volume was not as high as the falling stage, making it impossible to directly determine the stabilization and rebound; At present, there is no effective signal of increasing volume in the market, and there is no continuous bullish trend in the small cycle, indicating that there is no real main force undertaking and rigid demand entering below, and the core conditions for stopping the decline and reversing have not been met. The large cycle weekly chart maintains a complete downward trend, while most of the past new moon cycles have experienced declines. The sustainability of each rebound has been poor, and the overall bearish dominance pattern remains unchanged. The contract market capital rate is relatively high, with a large number of retail investors holding long positions in contracts. Spot funds are on the sidelines and have not actively taken on buying. The long short structure of the market is not conducive to a direct surge. To achieve a stable and sustainable rebound, it is necessary to complete the washing action: the price drops below the previous low point again, triggering the collective stop loss of contract long positions, clearing the leverage of long positions in the market, and releasing selling pressure. After completing the market wash, an hour level high volume long shadow candlestick appears, indicating that large funds are entering at a low level, which is when the conditions for safe long positions are met. Prediction of two future trends Ideal bottoming out structure: breaking through the previous low twice, clearing long stop loss, increasing volume to recover from the low point, and initiating a phased rebound; Weak relay structure: does not fall below the previous low and rebounds slightly, suppressed by high long positions, with very little room for rebound, and then falls sharply again to a new low in the new moon cycle.