Art of Speculation
Art of Speculation|7月 30, 2026 01:05
Technical aspect of the US stock market: After FOMC, the market confirms a weakening trend, and negative Gamma continues to expand After the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, the US stock market experienced a significant decline. SPX closed down 1.52%, with over $30 million in buying orders pushing the index to near its intraday high just one hour before the decision was announced. However, it quickly encountered selling and plummeted over 125 points in the last hour, forming a typical long trap. The biggest change in the current market comes from the Gamma structure SPX has fallen below the critical 7350 level, and the negative Gamma continues to move towards lower exercise prices. The rapid increase in negative Gamma around 7300 and 7200 means that market makers need to continue hedging in line with the trend. There is still a possibility of further amplification of short-term market volatility, and further action is needed. SPY SPY has fallen back to the previously expected support range of 725-731, which is also a triple support formed by the overlap of daily support, 21 week moving average, and historical key positions. However, the overall trend still maintains a bearish structure of Lower Highs&Lower Lows (one top lower than one top, one bottom lower than one bottom). It is not recommended to blindly buy the bottom until a clear stop signal appears. If it falls below 725, the next important support is 697. QQQ The trend of QQ is significantly weaker than SPY, and it has now fallen below the key position of 686, while also falling behind the 21 week moving average. Even if there is a technical rebound in the short term, it is more likely to be a Dead Cat Bounce. The next important technical support is focused on around EMA 200 648 and 637. VIX VIX closed at 20.49, rising more than 12% in a single day and re standing at 20. However, from the perspective of the Gamma structure of options, positions above 20 are mainly concentrated around 30 and 35, with relatively limited resistance in the middle. This means that this round of panic seems to be entering its final stage. If the VIX starts to decline in the future, the market will also usher in a technical rebound. IWM After Russell 2000 (IWM) fell below 290, the next support is focused on 285 and EMA 100 281.54. The first two weeks have been fluctuating between EMA 20 and EMA 50 (lucky for intraday trading, opening high and falling low every day, buying put and eating will be very comfortable), and then today it fell below EMA 50. The next target is EMA 100 281.54. Don't chase short until EMA 100, there is a high probability of a rebound. Falling, rebounding, EMA 20, then short again, ultimately seeing EMA 200 268 or weekly EMA 50 263. At present, the total gamma exposure has reached -1.62 billion US dollars, approaching the extreme level of about -2 billion US dollars in the past year. Based on historical experience, when negative Gamma approaches its extreme value and prices further decline to the 280-285 range, bearish sentiment often approaches its limit, followed by a strong contrarian bounce. Software sector becomes the direction of capital rotation Against the backdrop of pressure on AI hardware and semiconductors, the software sector has become one of the few directions to strengthen against the trend. Adobe rose 5.68% on the same day, with a continuous accumulation of positive Gamma around 260. If it successfully breaks through the pressure zone in recent months, it is expected to challenge 300 above. ServiceNow has risen 4.68% and is currently testing the resistance zone of 115-120. The positive Gamma of high exercise prices continues to strengthen, indicating that funds are gradually shifting towards the SaaS software sector.
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