律动BlockBeats|6月 25, 2026 03:32
Serenity: Centered around storage Neoclouds、 Photonics and robot reconfiguration, market typically pricing themes about 8 months in advance
According to BlockBeats, on June 25th, Serenity stated in a post that based on their personal experience, the market typically prices a certain theme about 8 months in advance, unless the relevant theme is space, robotics, or quantum. According to this rule, the layout of some CPO Scale Up related targets may have been delayed by about 4 months. In the field of photonics, the next generation of pluggable optical modules (1.6T) is roughly at the current stage, such as LITE, COHR, Innolight, etc; AAOI, JBL's 1.6T LRO, and other later high-volume targets may be available in the first half of 2027. The opportunities related to CPO Scale Out are expected to occur in the second half of 2026, NPO may serve as a bridging architecture from the second half of 2026 to 2027, and CPO Scale Up may occur in the second half of 2027. Serenity stated that storage is still a huge bottleneck, and HBM3e is currently increasing in volume, involving companies such as Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix, etc; HBM4 is also approaching the mass production stage, and HBF may appear in 2027. It believes that storage related companies are in the middle of a bottleneck and may continue to experience compound interest growth. In terms of glass substrates, it is expected that SKC Absoluts will begin to climb early in the second half of 2026, and the real opportunity may appear from the second half of 2027 to 2028. The supply chain for humanoid robots is still in its early stages, but with Musk's optimistic expectations for Tesla Optimus and the increasing volume of Chinese humanoid robot companies such as Yushu Technology and AGI Bot, the market may not wait too long to start pricing. In terms of Neoclouds, the current period may be a construction period for many companies, and some leading companies usually have a turning point in their financial reports for the fourth quarter of 2026. He said that he may focus on storage in the future Neoclouds、 Photonics and robotics will reconfigure their space and place greater emphasis on targets that are approximately 8 months away from the pricing window or can cover multiple themes simultaneously. [Original link]
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