Meta returns to the prediction market, banking on 3.56 billion daily active users. Zuckerberg is driving the internal app Arena, using a points-based system to tap into prediction games, avoiding the regulatory pressure of real money for now. Polymarket and Kalshi have already grown the market to a scale of tens of billions of dollars. With Meta entering the scene this time, the challenge is whether they can turn the prediction market from a trading tool into a mainstream entertainment product through social traffic. The competition in the prediction market is shifting from market depth to user distribution.