Haotian|Jul 24, 2026 07:53
Looking at the focus of public debate and the probabilities on Polymarket, the market overall holds a pessimistic attitude toward the passage of the CLARITY Act. Let me add a few more optimistic perspectives:
1) Right now is a brief time window before Congress's August recess, so it's rare to see Trump take such a big step back on ethical provisions, actively limiting the business interests of himself and his family. Because of this, the Democrats will likely show some goodwill; otherwise, it could easily be framed as them deliberately using the CLARITY Act to play the anti-Trump corruption political card.
2) The passage of the GENIUS Act itself shows that both parties have consensus on promoting the compliant expansion of stablecoins. After all, stablecoins holding U.S. Treasury bonds have significantly eased debt pressure, which the Democrats deeply feel as well. The CLARITY Act is merely dividing authority structures between the SEC and CFTC, which essentially benefits the scaling of the stablecoin market. There's no need for the Democrats to purely use the implementation of stablecoin legislation as a "sacrificial" bargaining chip for political infighting.
3) The ethical provisions simply bring the potential commercial interest transfers behind the CLARITY Act to the surface. Even if there are issues like unclear bans or overly short sunset clauses that leave room for "maneuvering," it's hard to find a perfect countermeasure in the short term. It feels like getting Trump’s paper compromise has already achieved the goal. Besides, the Senate needs 60 votes, and the Democrats need 7 Republican votes. There are quite a few Democrats who are relatively favorable toward the bill, so the chances aren’t small.
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