In a bull market, as long as it dips, buy and hold, ignore the fluctuations in between, then sell when it rises—it's hard to go wrong. The last mistake happens when the trend judgment is wrong, thinking it's still a bull market, continuing to buy low and sell high, but then... This is both path dependence and 'this time is different.' So, did you see that? How many times you're right doesn't matter, and how many times you're wrong doesn't matter either. What's important is getting the big trend right! What's important is nailing the trades with heavy positions in the big moves.