History is always surprisingly similar - has Strategy's financing dilemma just begun? Given that this situation is not the first time, there have been three occurrences of mNAV less than 1 since 2022, and it is not even the fourth time now, as it has not yet been less than 1. Therefore, Strategy is not completely helpless, but every method is becoming increasingly expensive. The most comfortable time for Strategy in the past was when BTC and MSTR rose, and both common and preferred stocks were selling well. The market was willing to give money, and Strategy received the money to continue buying BTC, and then continued to strengthen the narrative of Bitcoin Treasury Company. When this cycle goes smoothly, people think Saylor is a genius. The more financing he raises, the more coins he buys, and the more willing the market is to continue buying. But now the situation has reversed. BTC has fallen, MSTR has fallen, STRC has not returned to around $100, STRD and STRK have fallen to over $50, and the issuance of common stock ATMs will be even more diluted. Preferred stock investors are once again demanding higher returns. Of course, there are ways to use Strategy, and it has also been used in history. Firstly, preserve the cash in US dollars. Preferred stockholders are most concerned about whether dividends can continue to be paid, creditors are concerned about whether interest can be paid on time, and the market is concerned about whether Strategy will be forced to sell BTC. As long as there is sufficient cash in the US dollar, the market will not immediately worry about Strategy not being able to issue dividends. But once the market starts to suspect that there is not enough cash, even if Strategy still has a lot of BTC in hand, preferred stocks will fall first. Because those who buy preferred stocks want dividends in US dollars, not to accompany Saylor in preaching the Bitcoin faith. Secondly, slow down the pace of buying Bitcoin. In the past, the more I bought BTC, the more excited the market became because it represented an attack and a continued increase in BTC per share. But now if STRC is still in its 70s, STRD and STRK are still in their 50s, and Strategy continues to buy BTC on a large scale, the market will worry if the company is too aggressive. The most important thing that Strategy should prove at this stage is the ability to survive during BTC's downturn, as mentioned earlier, by spending less and saving more. Thirdly, preferred common stock ATM. Common stock ATMs are certainly not good for ordinary shareholders, as they can dilute, and the lower the stock price, the more obvious the dilution. But from the perspective of the company, common stock ATM is still the most flexible solution. Common stocks do not have a fixed dividend and there is no issue of repayment at maturity, which is slightly lighter than continuing to increase the dividend yield of preferred stocks. The most realistic way for Strategy to continue increasing its cash flow in US dollars is likely to be through common stock ATMs, but it cannot keep issuing like a tailwind period, otherwise it is easy for the stock price to fall further and the market to become more afraid. Fourthly, the STRC price has returned to above 90. STRC is Strategy's most important preferred stock financing tool, and now it has fallen to over $70, indicating that an 11.5% dividend yield is no longer attractive enough. Strategy can continue to increase the dividend yield of STRC and try to bring the price back to around $90 or even $100. But the scale of STRC is too large, and for every 1 percentage point increase in dividend yield, it may become a new burden of billions of dollars in the long run. STRC needs to stabilize market confidence, but cannot turn future dividends into a bigger burden just to bring prices back. Fifth: Buy back high discount preferred stocks at a low price. For example, if STRD and STRK are stuck at over $50 for a long time, Strategy may consider repurchasing a portion if allowed by the rules. Preferred stock with a face value of $100 and a 10% dividend can be bought back for over $50, which is equivalent to using a little over half of the money to offset the face value of $100 and the corresponding dividends in the future. This action is more defensive than continuing to buy BTC. The advantage is that it can reduce the annual dividends to be paid in the future and also tell the market that the company feels its preferred stock is undervalued. Of course, this method will also consume cash in US dollars, so it can only be used when cash is relatively safe and the discount is deep enough. Sixth: Finally, sell BTC. Selling BTC may not be immediately fatal financially for Strategy, but it is very expensive in terms of narrative. In extreme cases, Strategy can supplement USD cash by selling a small portion of BTC through over-the-counter trading or a more moderate approach. But once Strategy starts selling BTC, the market immediately thinks, is this company still the same Bitcoin treasury company that only buys and doesn't sell? Will they continue to sell in the future? When will it be sold? How much do you sell? Once this narrative changes, the valuation logic of MSTR will also change accordingly. So the most reasonable sequence for the current strategy should be to first protect the US dollar cash, slow down the pace of continuing to buy BTC, maintain financing ability with common stock ATMs, cautiously increase the STRC dividend yield to pull the price back, and if necessary, buy back some deeply discounted preferred stocks at a low price. If the debt market can borrow money, use it, but if the conditions are too poor, you have to survive, and finally consider selling BTC. The real problem now is whether the market is still willing to believe in Strategy's ability to continue financing. If BTC stabilizes, MSTR stabilizes, STRC returns to above $90, STRF does not continue to decline, and STRD and STRK slowly recover from over $50, then Strategy still has a chance to recover. If BTC continues to fall, MSTR continues to fall, STRC stays at over $70 for a long time, and STRD and STRK hover at over $50 for a long time, then Strategy is not completely helpless, but each method will become increasingly expensive. Ordinary shareholders will have to bear more dilution, preferred stocks will have to pay higher dividends, and in the worst case, even BTC may have to be exchanged for cash in US dollars. This is what Strategy really needs to face now. Bitget is here, VIP! Crypto、 US shares CFD， Global Advantage One Stop Layout