Bitcoin is currently leaning toward Scenario Two (yellow line): double top trap, with a probability of about 50-60%. This scenario requires a catalyst (e.g., CPI data coming in lower than expected, briefly boosting sentiment) and is a 'money-giving' move. Characteristics: After finding support in the 78,000-79,000 range, it rebounds upward with the help of short-term positive factors, forming a second top in the 82,000-84,000 range, completing the ultimate bull-bear reversal.