After BTC fell below 60000, it has now pulled back to 64000, and ETH has also returned to around 1700 The market has started to recover, why hasn't HYPE, who shouted the most fiercely a few days ago, caught up yet? Has the tide really receded this time, or has it just washed away the person who wants to chase high? The most easily shaken thing these days is not that HYPE has fallen, but that it has fallen like a "strong narrative failure": a few days ago, it was still talking about 100 and 150, and over the weekend it once returned to around 55, but now it has only returned to around 60, far from the momentum of reaching a new high with just one pull before. But the answer given by on chain data is not that simple According to AiCoin's on chain data statistics, from 00:00 to 8am today, the transaction volume related to HYPE clearing/liquidation was about 66.17 million US dollars, of which the short side was about 61.11 million US dollars and the long side was only about 5.06 million US dollars. The largest hour occurred between 06:00-07:00, with short side clearing/strong closing transactions totaling approximately $60.37 million, involving 1645 addresses. This morning's rebound did indeed knock out some of the bears Currently, HYPE is around $59-60, and the recent bearish liquidation band above is not thick, with $60-65 around $7.4 million; But continuing upwards, $65-75 is about $47 million, $75-85 is about $137 million, and $85-105 is about $224 million. If HYPE can regain its position above 65, the market is likely to once again focus on the 75-85 range But there are also risks below There is approximately $61.26 million in long liquidation for $50-55, with $40-50 being thicker at around $257 million. The most crucial single barrel is still 49-50 US dollars, with about 104 million US dollars of long liquidation per barrel. So the most critical position of HYPE today is actually very clear: Look up at 65, look down at 55. If 55 breaks through again, the market will continue to doubt whether this round of HYPE has shifted from a strong mainline to a high-level decline; But if we can hold around 55 and even stand back at 65, then this weekend's kill will be more like a high-level turnover. What's even more interesting is that although the price is weak, HYPE's funding structure has not completely dispersed According to AiCoin's on chain data statistics, HYPE has seen spot ETF fund inflows for the 10th consecutive trading day, while BTC and ETH ETFs have been under pressure during the same period. Another phenomenon is that the number of large households is increasing while the number of small households is decreasing, and the market is shifting from "retail investors chasing price increases" to "chips concentrating on larger accounts" In addition, the a16z affiliated entity has hoarded approximately 90091 HYPEs worth approximately 5.238 million US dollars in the past two days; Since 2026, the total amount of warehouse construction has reached approximately 6.996 million HYPE, with a total value of approximately 327 million US dollars and an average price of approximately 46.85 US dollars. Another easily misinterpreted news is that the Hyperliquid team has released 18.88 million HYPEs, worth approximately $1.14 billion This may sound scary, but the market supplement explains that this is not selling coins, but rather reallocating them to 11 verification nodes. More importantly, the proportion of foundation nodes has decreased from a highly concentrated state, while the proportion of external validators has increased to about 50.7% If this explanation holds true, it is more like a decentralized structural adjustment rather than a smash This makes the differences more direct: On one hand, after the sharp decline of BTC and ETH, market sentiment weakened, and HYPE also fell from a high to 55.48, indicating a significant cooling of short-term strength On the other hand, the bears were knocked out for over 60 million US dollars this morning, while ETF funds are still flowing in and the number of large investors has increased. a16z is still continuing to buy Many people are saying that HYPE is no longer as strong as a few days ago, and around 60 is just a draw But from the perspective of on chain data and fund structure, it is precisely because BTC and ETH are so weak that HYPE can still hold around 55, and there are still people joining on the chain, which shows that it has not fallen behind from the main line So the question now is not whether HYPE can immediately return to 100 But is 55 the watershed of this strong structure If 55 cannot hold on, the popularity of shouting 100 or 150 a few days ago may be a temporary peak But if 55 holds and 65 regains its position, then this decline may just be a retracement to wash out short-term chips Which side do you trust more? Is it the market downturn brought by BTC and ETH, or is it the HYPE mainline that a16z, large investors, and ETF funds are still following? HYPE Hyperliquid BTC