Phyrex|May 06, 2026 20:46
The United States and Iran are still in the process of pulling together, but I seem to be right yesterday. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has made both countries very uncomfortable. Therefore, the settlement of the Strait of Hormuz should be the first step in the peace agreement between the two countries. For the United States, it is almost impossible to cut interest rates in 2026 if the WTI remains above $100 for a long time, not to mention Walsh, but even Trump's son.
For Iran as well, if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, the United States will block Iran's oil exports, which is equivalent to strangling Iran's economic lifeline. While continuing the war may not be easy for the United States, Iran is likely to be more severely injured. If a ceasefire is a common demand of both sides, then the Strait of Hormuz is the throat of both economies.
Yesterday, I was still considering if Iran made the Strait of Hormuz a prerequisite for negotiations, what bargaining chips would they have when it comes to nuclear facilities? Now that I think about it, after all, it's right at Iran's doorstep. If it doesn't work, we can continue to block it. But this is definitely not the right thing to do. Can Malacca and the Red Sea also be charged?
However, although the negotiations are still ongoing, the decline in oil prices indicates that the market still sees an opportunity to reach a deal. If it can stabilize and fall below $90 this week, then inflation in the United States will be simpler in the future.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, the data level is very good, but unfortunately, I have been emphasizing that the good data is due to the good progress in the United States and Iran, and things are moving towards a peaceful resolution, not because of changes in BTC itself. Currently, the overall structure of cryptocurrency has not changed, and it can only be considered as an accessory of the US stock market. When the US stock market environment and expectations rise, at least Bitcoin will not be too bad.
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