BTC pushed above the TBO cloud over the weekend and is technically strong bullish in the short term, but Aaron’s core message today was still caution. Volume remains weak, the Slow line is still macro bearish, and RSI is putting in lower highs while price stalls just under 80K. Even with OBV still technically bullish, this move does not yet look strong enough to change the bigger bearish view. ETH looks even weaker than BTC here. It bounced, but it still has not cleanly cleared overhead resistance, RSI continues to trend lower, and volume plus OBV both look fragile. Aaron is still expecting a lower low on ETH, and that fits with the broader setup where BTC is holding up better than the rest of the market. The bigger macro warning signs are still in dominance and risk sentiment. BTC.D remains very strong, stablecoin dominance looks ready to push higher, and TOTALES plus OTHERS/BTC still look vulnerable to rejection. If stablecoin dominance rises while BTC.D stays firm, alts are likely to keep getting punished even if BTC itself only pulls back modestly. TradFi is also flashing risk-on excess while Aaron stays skeptical. DXY looks like it could bounce, USDJPY remains important after Japan intervention talk, GameStop pumping again is a sign of greed, and oil still looks strong while gold and silver stay mixed. On the watchlist, Aaron leaned bearish on names like XLM, NEAR, ICP, ARB, RENDER, DEXE, PENGU, MON, and AERO, while stronger charts like DOGE, HYPE, and MORPHO still look impressive but increasingly suspicious if momentum keeps fading. Chapters: 00:00 BTC above the cloud but still lacking conviction 03:10 ETH looks weaker than BTC 06:13 BTC dominance and stablecoin dominance warnings 10:42 TOTALES and OTHERS/BTC rejection risk 12:50 DXY, USDJPY, and stock market risk sentiment 16:57 Oil, gold, and silver check-in 18:56 TRX, ZEC, TAO, ONDO, and H 22:55 XLM, WLFI, NEAR, ICP, ARB, and ZRO 27:12 DEXE, PENGU, MON, and AERO 31:17 DOGE, HYPE, XMR, ALGO, MORPHO, and viewer picks 34:22 Final outlook for May and June(Aaron Dishner)