TraderS | 缺德道人|4月 30, 2026 15:29
For retail investors, there is no need or energy to focus too much on individual stocks when speculating in the US stock market. If they can do well in the four leading stocks and adjust their positions, it is enough.
These four are the largest buyers of AI capital expenditures and the most imaginative sellers on the monetization side, forming a mutual verification relationship with each other
But 'band+adjustment' is more difficult than expected on these four, firstly because their beta is getting higher and higher. MSFT/GOOGL has historically been a low volatility 'cash flow bond', but AI capital expenditures have transformed them into high elasticity bets - single quarter capital expenditure guidance corrects stock prices to double-digit volatility.
So instead of taking turns between the four, it's better to see them as a combination and make decisions in two dimensions:
Total position dimension - synchronized with the capital expenditure cycle. When the four capital expenditure guidelines collectively increase and interest rates become loose, increase holdings; when capital expenditure increases but interest rates tighten (such as the potential scenario after Walsh took office), reduce holdings.
Structural dimension - stratified by "cash flow certainty". GOOGL/META has the highest cash flow certainty (advertising monetization has been verified), MSFT is moderate (Copilot is being verified), and AMZN has the lowest (e-commerce profit margin+AWS heavy investment dual pressure). In the environment of rising interest rates, it tends to lean towards the top two, while in the environment of falling interest rates and rising risk appetite, it tends to lean towards AMZN.
Based on the situation where Walsh takes over as Federal Reserve Chairman and Powell remains as a director, it can be seen that the Federal Reserve is about to enter an era of great division. This may be a positive for gold, but a negative for the US stock market, as the risk market is most afraid of the prospect of interest rate policies that could explode at any time. In the future, Powell may change his attitude according to Trump's threat. If Trump does not intend to let him go and Master Bao has to retain his directorship to protect himself, the market may fluctuate violently in this game.
During periods of intense market volatility, numerous US stock platforms represented by MSX are a good place to hedge against cryptocurrency fluctuations, with a wide range of targets and consistent operating habits with cryptocurrency exchanges, providing the market with more choices.
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