BTC rebounds and enters critical zone The interrelationship and changes in the cost basis of different coin holding groups are one of the important conditions for me to judge the rebound/reversal. The red/green/yellow lines represent the costs of the ultra short term and medium to long term coin holders, respectively (see note in the figure). Currently, with the rebound of BTC prices, the red line is rising and intersecting with the yellow line (Figure 1). When the green line at a higher level still maintains a downward trend, the intersection of the red/yellow lines is usually a signal of a rebound entering the critical zone. Compared to 2022, there have been three instances in the entire bear market range where the red and yellow lines intersected due to price rebounds; Every time they intersect, the green line is always pointing downwards, but the distance between the green line and the red and yellow lines is getting closer and closer each time! This is an extremely important observation point! If the "red yellow intersection" in front is used as a buying point, the funds will repeatedly wear and tear. Until the green and red yellow lines are completely bonded, the breakthrough of the red line is the signal of trend reversal. (The same logic applies to the 2018 cycle, so we won't go into too much detail here. You can refer to Figure 3 for yourself.) Obviously, the 'mid-term chips' have not yet undergone a complete turnover, resulting in the green line being too far away from the red and yellow lines (without any cost bonding). Therefore, I believe this is not a clear buying point before the trend reversal. Based on past data, the height limit of the rebound should be below the green line. Perhaps some friends may ask: Will this time be different, with prices directly breaking through the green line, driving the red line to continuously break through and form a trend reversal? Of course, it is possible that all judgments are based on external environment, past experience, and current conditions, and nothing can be guaranteed 100%. I can only say that if that's the case, it's really beyond my ability and cognitive range.