qinbafrank|4月 17, 2026 13:31
Iran announced that during the Lebanon ceasefire, all commercial ships will have full access to the Hormuz Strait passage. However, ships still need to follow Iran's designated 'coordination routes,' coordinate with Iran's armed forces/maritime authorities, and undergo inspections. So, it’s not yet a completely free and unobstructed 'full passage.' But this is still a promising step toward fully opening the strait, and it seems conditional reconciliation is starting to take shape.
The script we discussed in mid-March: escalation, fueling the fire, using conflict to push negotiations, and conditional reconciliation. It seems to be playing out as predicted. The retweeted posts contain all the key analyses of the Iran situation since early March.
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