["The probability of 'U.S. and Iran reaching a ceasefire before March 31' briefly rises to 44%, then falls back to 16%"] Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of the Polymarket event "U.S. and Iran reaching a ceasefire before March 31" briefly surged to 44%, then fell back to approximately 16%, corresponding to significant short-term volatility. Previously, Trump stated that U.S.-Iran talks had made good progress and delayed military actions against Iran's energy infrastructure. However, Iran subsequently denied any direct or indirect contact between the two sides, calling the related statements "psychological warfare." Meanwhile, Israel claimed to have carried out airstrikes on Tehran, further tightening geopolitical tensions and causing market expectations to reverse rapidly. Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before pricing.