RECESSION RISK RISES AS OIL SURGES Kalshi traders now see a 31% chance of a U.S. recession in 2026, up ~11 points amid oil volatility. Goldman Sachs flags oil as the top risk from the Iran conflict: each sustained 10% price rise adds ~0.2pp to inflation and cuts GDP growth 0.1pp. Goldman’s forecast: Brent ~$98 in March–April, PCE inflation 2.9% by Dec 2026, GDP growth 2.2%, unemployment peak 4.6%, 12-month recession risk 25%. The Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts to September and December as inflation stays elevated. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecssnber/recession/kxrecssnber-26?utm_source=walterbloomberg(*Walter Bloomberg)