2025.11.11 Macro Market Analysis Good afternoon, brothers! Let’s talk about the upcoming trends. (1) What stage are we currently in? We’re in the middle of a massive shakeout, which started last November. Over the course of a year, this shakeout has pushed out ancient whales and early Bitcoin players. This group has sold at least 5 million BTC over the past year. From July this year until now, 2.57 million BTC have been sold. Based on the principle of the past 4-year cycle, BTC typically rallies after halving, followed by a 1-2 year bear market. Then, it takes another 4 years for the next halving and rally. So, these old players are dumping like crazy. But this cycle has changed. Despite over 2 million BTC being sold since July, the price hasn’t dropped much. The short-term holder (STH) group has increased their holdings by 1 million BTC, now reaching 5.4 million BTC—a growth of 24.7%. Although these holdings are currently at a loss, new investors are still entering the market and buying in. (2) How long will the shakeout last? Not much longer. It’s estimated to end by the end of the year or around January next year. By then, those who need to sell will have sold, and the buying power will come in to start pushing prices up. Who are the buyers? 1. U.S. state financial reserves 2. Publicly listed companies 3. Asset management firms (3) Will it keep going up? It won’t go up forever. There might be black swan events (30% probability), and we can’t rule out a retest of $98,000. If it does retest, while others panic, just hold your ground. Don’t follow the crowd by panic selling or shorting. This analysis is just friendly advice. Adults need to take responsibility for their own decisions. Investments carry risks—please invest with spare funds and think independently!