[U.S. Government Shutdown May Last Until After November 16, Market Expectations Rise Significantly] According to Polymarket data, the probability of the contract 'U.S. government shutdown ends after November 16' has risen to 44%, indicating that the market expects the government to struggle to resume operations in the short term. The data shows that the probability of it ending 'between November 4 and 7' is 3%, 'between November 8 and 11' is 22%, and 'between November 12 and 15' is 30%. As of now, the U.S. federal government shutdown has lasted 37 days, setting a new historical record. The previous longest shutdown occurred from late 2018 to early 2019, lasting 35 days. Analysts point out that the two parties remain deadlocked over the appropriations bill, with the Senate failing to pass the temporary budget proposal put forward by Republicans in 13 consecutive votes.