The September PCE data, which was delayed by two months due to the US government shutdown, will finally be released tonight. This is also the last influential macro data before the FOMC meeting on December 10th, and the last public observation window for Federal Reserve policies. The current market game is actually a game between a "lagging inflation rebound" and a "forward-looking economic slowdown". The current market annual rate expectation is 2.9%, and the monthly rate expectation is 0.2% The probability of CME cutting interest rates in December is 87.2% If PCE reports a lower than expected value tonight, it will further strengthen next week's interest rate cut expectations, which the market will see as evidence of inflation control. Coupled with Wednesday's weak ADP employment data, it will help the risk market rebound further. If PCE releases a higher than expected value and as long as it is not an extremely outrageous breakout, bulls may use data lag as an excuse to argue that this is September data, three months ago, and the current oil prices and employment environment have changed. Due to the unexpected reduction of 32000 positions by ADP on Wednesday, the data fault tolerance rate has increased this time. That is to say, even if the PCE data is not ideal, Powell can still cut interest rates because "due to the lag of monetary policy, we need to make precautionary cuts to prevent the collapse of the job market The most suitable data for tonight is the core PCE monthly rate of 0.2%, confirming that inflation is under control and the economy is resilient, which is the most favorable for the overall situation. If the announced result is a core PCE monthly rate of 0.3% or above, then US bond yields may rebound, and the market may be concerned about long-term inflation, which is not conducive to the market's medium - to long-term trend. In summary, tonight's PCE is a key short-term emotional catalyst, but it can no longer determine the long-term fate of the market alone. The real challenge lies in how the market can re anchor asset values in a new environment where growth slows down, inflation remains stubborn, and policies struggle to balance the "dual mission" after data is implemented.