The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Jul 01, 2025 11:16
The ironic part about the Elon Musk/President Trump situation: Eliminating the US deficit would actually accomplish ALL of President Trump's economic goals, at once. First, the elimination of deficit spending would allow treasury yields to drop as multi-trillion dollar Treasury issuances would subside. It would also drive inflation lower, allow the Fed to cut interest rates, and calm the bond market down. In fact, the bond market is the very reason the trade war took a turn in April, as the 10Y Yield surged above 4.60%. In a way, lower deficit spending would allow Trump to impose more tariff pressure to narrow the trade deficit. And, while the trade war has been viewed as a "short term pain for a long term gain," the true application of this statement is for cutting deficit spending. As @ElonMusk's public statements on the debt crisis continue, more Americans are paying attention. We have been clear on our stance since pandemic-era stimulus began in 2020: On our current fiscal path, bankruptcy is the base case.
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