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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|7月 01, 2025 11:16
The ironic part about the Elon Musk/President Trump situation: Eliminating the US deficit would actually accomplish ALL of President Trump's economic goals, at once. First, the elimination of deficit spending would allow treasury yields to drop as multi-trillion dollar Treasury issuances would subside. It would also drive inflation lower, allow the Fed to cut interest rates, and calm the bond market down. In fact, the bond market is the very reason the trade war took a turn in April, as the 10Y Yield surged above 4.60%. In a way, lower deficit spending would allow Trump to impose more tariff pressure to narrow the trade deficit. And, while the trade war has been viewed as a "short term pain for a long term gain," the true application of this statement is for cutting deficit spending. As @ElonMusk's public statements on the debt crisis continue, more Americans are paying attention. We have been clear on our stance since pandemic-era stimulus began in 2020: On our current fiscal path, bankruptcy is the base case.
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Timeline

7月 31, 08:05【BTC price 118599, follow ETH and XRP】
7月 31, 05:36【The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 4.5%】
7月 31, 04:05【Powell's press conference was neutral in attitude and did not show any hawkishness】
7月 30, 23:52【The inflation gap is higher than the employment gap, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates】
7月 30, 23:10【Powell refuses to set a predetermined path for interest rate cuts】
7月 30, 19:46【Probability analysis of interest rate cut in September meeting】
7月 30, 19:44【Powell refuses to cut interest rates again, tariffs have not triggered inflation】
7月 30, 19:03【The US economy is stable, and it is expected to only cut interest rates once this year】
7月 30, 18:08【Trump: It is rumored that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September】
7月 30, 18:04【The Federal Reserve refuses to cut interest rates】

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