Written by:潮向 Research

The storage chip sector staged a major counterattack overnight, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recording its largest single-day gain in a month, while all three major stock indices closed up, along with rising oil prices and precious metals. On this side of the Middle East, Trump has declared that the U.S. will soon launch a "very fierce" strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, with reports of explosions near the U.S. Navy base in Bahrain. Market attention has shifted to tomorrow's earnings reports from Tesla and Alphabet, which will be the first tough battle of this round of tech giants' earnings season.

Market Performance

The Nasdaq rose 1.29%, the S&P 500 rose 0.89%, and the Dow rose 0.74%.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 5.21%, marking the largest single-day gain since June 22. Storage concept stocks collectively surged, with SanDisk rising over 14%, SK Hynix rising over 13%, Western Digital and Micron Technology rising over 12%, Seagate Technology rising over 11%, and Kioxia ADR rising over 17%.

The Livermore China concept stock index closed up 1.06%. Major European stock indices collectively closed up, with Germany's DAX 30 index rising 0.59%.

WTI crude oil settled up 2.02%, and Brent crude oil settled up 2.01%. COMEX gold rose 1.69%, priced at $4083.7 per ounce. COMEX silver rose 4.23%, priced at $59.065 per ounce. Bitcoin is around $66,507, up over 2%; Ethereum is priced at $1901.08.

Macroeconomics and Outlook

The direct driving force behind this round of rebound in storage chip stocks is the return of funds to the semiconductor sector. After experiencing a chaotic sell-off last week, market sentiment has shown a noticeable repair. This rebound did not only occur in the U.S. stock market; European and Asia-Pacific markets also saw an overall rise, ending a previous four consecutive days of decline.

Some overseas fund managers believe that this round of adjustment has already fallen enough, and it is the actual reported earnings from companies that have supported the market, which have exceeded the originally pessimistic estimates. This is the confidence for capital to dare to replenish positions.

BlackRock's strategy team has similar views; they believe that the investment theme of AI has not been shaken by recent volatility. Additionally, they have raised a perspective, suggesting that global economic sensitivity to oil has diminished significantly compared to previous rounds of oil price shocks, indicating that the market's immunity to rising oil prices is actually stronger than expected.

However, there are also contrary voices warning that risks have not cleared. Some analysts point out that the process of institutional reduction in U.S. stocks is far from over, and the sustainability of this round of rebound still raises questions.

There are also some structural changes worth noting in the storage chip industry chain. Samsung Electronics is expanding its cooperation with NVIDIA in the NAND flash memory field and has started supplying NVIDIA with tenth-generation V-NAND products. At the same time, there are reports that SK Hynix is negotiating to acquire Intel's campus in Ohio, intended for storage chip production. TSMC plans to raise foundry prices for advanced and mature processes by up to 10% in 2027, citing ongoing increases in material and equipment costs.

This week's biggest highlight will be tomorrow, as Tesla and Alphabet will kick off this round of tech giants' earnings season, while Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will have to wait until next week. What the market really wants to know is whether the massive funds these companies have poured into AI over the past year can translate into actual performance returns.

In terms of geopolitical situation, Trump has stated that the U.S. will soon take action against a subterranean nuclear facility south of Natanz, Iran, describing it as a "very fierce" strike. He has also issued a strong warning that if the Houthis in Yemen dare to blockade the Red Sea, the U.S. will also take action. The Iranian military has not backed down, threatening that if the nuclear facility is truly attacked, all U.S. interests in the Middle East will suffer retaliation.

On the same day, the capital of Bahrain, Manama, sounded air raid alarms, with reports of explosions near the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet Headquarters, and local residents were instructed to seek shelter.

This exchange of statements and actions indicates that both sides are currently still in a stage of mutual probing of lines, with no genuine signals of de-escalation yet appearing.

There are also new developments along the trade front, with the White House unilaterally announcing an additional 50% tariff on some Canadian products, claiming that Canada has treated the U.S. unfairly regarding auto parts. This new tax will take effect from August 19. This could be Trump’s toughest move against this second-largest trading partner since taking office. However, the market’s reaction has been quite muted, and the Canadian dollar's exchange rate has not fluctuated much.

潮向 Perspective

The speed of the rebound in storage chip stocks is as fierce as last week's sell-off, with double-digit single-day gains indicating that the market's previous panic may have gone a bit overboard.

However, the reason for the rebound is more about repairing positions, and there hasn't been any new favorable news in the fundamentals. This is evident from the warning mentioned by BlackRock and some analysts that "the institutional reduction is far from over," reflecting that the internal consensus on how far this round of rebound can go is actually not unified.

The true touchstone will be tomorrow's Tesla and Alphabet earnings reports. If Alphabet provides strong capital expenditure guidance, the rebound is likely to continue; if there are any signs of contraction in guidance, the gains accumulated by storage and chip stocks in the past few days may be quickly retraced. This logic is consistent with the market reactions following TSMC and Samsung's earnings reports over the past two weeks, with investors becoming extremely sensitive to the pricing of AI hardware stocks.

Currently, there are no substantial signs of easing in the Middle East situation. If Trump's "very fierce" strike truly materializes, the recent rise in oil prices and safe-haven assets may not be over yet. This factor, combined with the earnings season, will likely influence market sentiment, and it is probable that the volatility over the next few days will not be small.