US September CPI Outlook: Core inflation becomes key variable, market holds its breath waiting for Fed's next decision BlockBeats news: On October 14th, the United States will receive a key data tonight that is enough to reshape interest rate expectations. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 am Eastern Time, which is 8:30 am Beijing Time. Economists predict that, driven by rising energy prices, the overall CPI will increase by 0.6% month on month and 3.6% year-on-year; Excluding food and energy, the core CPI is expected to increase by 0.2% month on month and 2.5% year-on-year. This means that the market's focus may not necessarily be on whether overall inflation has re accelerated, but on its underlying composition. If gasoline prices are the main driving force and core service and commodity prices remain moderate, investors may see it as a relatively localized energy shock. On the contrary, if the core CPI unexpectedly rises to 0.3% or above, it will indicate that price pressure is spreading to a wider range of areas, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to ignore. The timing of data release is particularly sensitive. The Federal Reserve raised its target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% -4.00% in September, and the next policy meeting will be held on October 27-28. According to the minutes of the September meeting, officials still believe that there is a high risk of upward inflation and are concerned that the rise in energy prices may further spread to other price items. Therefore, tonight's performance of core inflation will become an important basis for the market to judge whether the Federal Reserve needs to continue tightening policy. At present, the divergence among Wall Street investment banks is mainly reflected in the intensity of inflation. Goldman Sachs predicts that the overall year-on-year increase in CPI in September may reach 3.7%, slightly higher than market consensus; Bank of America has warned that if the data is too hot, the market may increase its bets on further interest rate hikes. The forecast for core CPI is focused on a moderate upward range, with expectations of about 0.18% for JPMorgan and Citigroup, and about 0.24% for Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays, indicating that the market is on the edge of two readings with different policy implications, 0.2% and 0.3%. For the asset market, a higher than expected core CPI data may drive up US bond yields and the US dollar, while suppressing technology stocks and high valuation assets that are more sensitive to interest rates; If the core reading meets or falls below expectations, the market may attribute high overall inflation more to energy, and risk assets may gain breathing space.