The most important data today is the September CPI. Last week, I mentioned it here: https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2108188350742180063?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A: September CPI will be released next Wednesday. Oil prices stayed high throughout September, so the broad CPI might rebound compared to August. The key is whether the core CPI, which excludes energy and food, meets expectations and isn’t too strong. Looking at current market expectations and Cleveland Fed forecasts, both point to a divergence between broad CPI and core CPI. Based on specific data, the Cleveland Fed’s real-time prediction for the month-over-month broad CPI and year-over-year core CPI is slightly lower than market expectations. In my opinion, the trend of core CPI is indeed more important than broad CPI right now. Core CPI excludes food and energy, making it a better indicator of whether inflationary pressures are spreading to other goods and services. For example, if the U.S. broad CPI rises by 0.6% but core CPI is only 0.2%, it shows that, at least in September, rising oil prices (energy) haven’t caused a widespread increase in prices. If that’s the case, it suggests that the acceleration in inflation is mainly due to localized hotspots rather than widespread price pressures. This is a significant difference compared to the 2022 rate hike cycle. Potential risks: 1) Broad CPI being much stronger than expected. Truflation’s real-time inflation forecast is currently much higher year-over-year compared to May. The trend in Truflation’s data is worth referencing (no need to focus on specific numbers). 2) The degree of deviation in core CPI month-over-month from the 0.2% expectation.