Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)|Sep 08, 2026 22:40
There is complex nuance here between what is “gambling” and what is a “prediction market”
But here is the really clear litmus test of that:
-If this was legally gambling, casinos and sportsbooks would offer these types of markets under their existing licenses
-They don’t. Instead some of them are applying for their own DCM licenses to offer separate arms length prediction markets.
They fund a lobby who loves to claim this is “gambling” but they won’t launch that product themselves.
Binary swaps are a long standing financial product that’s been made more financially accessible.
That has some edge cases that some people find unsavory and that addictive personality types are vulnerable to.
The same can be said for penny stocks, stock options, leverage trading and other high risk products.
I think we need to do better at regulating risk controls and advertising standards around those types of products.
Rather than just trying to brand them and ban them.
There are good and important reasons for binary swap event contracts to exist.
There are also ways people misuse them and get sucked in by them.
If we can have nuanced discussions about them, we can fix those problems.(Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth))
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