TingHu♪|8月 11, 2026 07:50
Basically, all kinds of on-chain data now point to Bitcoin's cycle bottom being in Q4 this year (2026). The exact timing might differ, but it's generally within the fourth quarter. Of course, there’s still a significant group of people who think every dip this year is the bottom. When the price rebounds, they’re convinced the previous dip was the bottom; when it drops again, they claim the new low is the bottom. This type of retail investor is pretty common—usually either newbies or seasoned ones who believe 'this time is different.' We won’t dive into that discussion.
Now, the interesting part is that so many people are pointing to Q4 as the bottom after the price has dropped (rather than at the bull market peak). This is what makes it different from the past, because history is 'too coincidental'—it drops again, and they conveniently mark the cycle bottom. However, the timing for marking the cycle bottom in 2022 was much later. I think there’s still a high probability of getting it right this time. In other words, setting up a cycle strategy during a sentiment low in Q4 could reliably earn a cycle’s worth of profits. But here’s the real question: if another black swan event happens at that time, will you still dare to execute your plan?
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