QQQ Technical Analysis 686 is a very critical level. Two possible scenarios: 1. Bear trap: A false breakdown below 686, then recovery and breakout, followed by a retest of 686 without breaking below it, and then moving upward. 2. Bull trap: A false breakout above 686, reaching 690-696 to test the EMA 20 but failing to break through, then closing with a long upper shadow below 686, followed by a drop to EMA 200 at 649. The lowest point won’t go below the January 29, 2026 high of 637. After bottoming out below, it will rise again. Sentiment Analysis As of today, July 30, bearish sentiment has reached 55.6%, the highest this year—it was only 52% during the trade war. A short-term rebound is likely, as sentiment is overly pessimistic. Today’s short covering led to a rebound, which is expected to continue tomorrow. Options Analysis From the latest options sentiment data, the market is leaning toward a defensive stance, but it’s not yet in full panic mode. The Total Put/Call Ratio is 1.05, indicating that the number of Put purchases has slightly exceeded Call purchases, reflecting a decline in risk appetite. The SPX Put/Call Ratio (1.23) and ETF Put/Call Ratio (1.46) are significantly elevated, showing that institutional funds are increasing hedging positions through index products like SPX, SPY, and QQQ, remaining cautious about macro risks. However, the Equity Put/Call Ratio is only 0.61, suggesting that the individual stock options market is still dominated by Call purchases, with investors maintaining high expectations for AI-related earnings reports. Market sentiment is indeed weakening rapidly, but the situation is more about institutions actively hedging risks and retail investors being pessimistic. There hasn’t been a full-scale panic-driven capital withdrawal. The current market environment is bearish but not yet at extreme fear levels. Tomorrow, all eyes will be on how QQQ reacts to the 686 level. The last day of July is going to be crucial.