qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Jun 09, 2026 16:55
Everyone's talking tonight about Semianalysis's Computex 2026 experience and the news that large-scale CPO deployment might be delayed. But Bernstein's mid-May report already made it clear: cloud providers won't sacrifice system reliability and maintainability just to save energy. After Bernstein's discussions with InnoLight, it seems no cloud provider is planning large-scale CPO deployment in 2026-2027. CPO is the direction, but what's more likely to deliver results in 2026 is the transitional phase of LPO/NPO. The more realistic revenue drivers in 2026 will be 1.6T, LPO/NPO, light sources, testing, PCB, ABF, and CCL. Optical tech won't immediately replace copper, and copper won't hold onto every scenario forever; different distances and system levels will adopt different solutions. Why did we break down this report back then? The key point is that this report actually outlines the investment pace in the optical interconnect field. If you'd read Bernstein's report in detail, you wouldn't be surprised or caught off guard by today's Semianalysis news.
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