mignolet
mignolet|6月 04, 2026 01:09
Since late May, I have consistently stated that market conditions have been deteriorating, and so far, that trend has continued exactly as expected. I have also repeatedly pointed out that the current market behavior is not materially different from what we saw at the market top last year or during the $80K ~ $90K range in January this year. In reality, the market continues to unfold in a very similar manner. What concerns me most is the growing assumption that the market must be close to a bottom simply because prices have already fallen significantly and a considerable amount of time has passed. This mindset is becoming increasingly dangerous. Markets do not reverse simply because enough pain has been felt or enough time has gone by. They reverse when real demand returns and strong buyers step in. Without meaningful buying pressure from the dominant market participants those who see crisis as opportunity the fact that prices have already declined substantially means very little on its own. Think back to Bitcoin's rally. "How can it possibly keep going up this much?" "Surely it has to correct now." Those arguments were repeated over and over again, yet the trend did not easily reverse. The same logic should apply during a downtrend. When the KOSPI was climbing higher and higher, very few people expected it to rise as much as it eventually did. Trends do not change as easily as most people think. If we set aside assumptions such as: "It's already fallen enough." "It's been correcting for long enough." and instead focus on actual demand flows and investor psychology, I believe today's environment is not very different from what we saw at last year's market peak or during the $80K–$90K range in January. At the moment, I do not see strong demand aggressively buying this decline as an opportunity. To put it simply, the market is not showing the type of buying behavior that typically accompanies a meaningful reversal. Objectively speaking, conditions continue to deteriorate.(mignolet)
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