Murphy|May 20, 2026 01:00
You want to wait, someone doesn't want to wait .....
BTC has been falling continuously for 5 days since 5/15, and some people who were afraid of being sold out a few days ago are now anticipating that it will go bankrupt this time.
As the saying goes, pessimists are correct, optimists move forward. Today, let's not discuss whether we can reach 40000 or 50000, but only look at the flow of chips and the attitude of funds during these 5 days.
Pay attention to the following two figures. In the data of 5/15 (Figure 1), 6.6w and 7.8w are the two chips with the most turnover, clearly reflecting the entry position of large funds.
The chip column in the range of 8w-8.2w is very short (blue dashed box). Although BTC prices have remained at this level for nearly a week, there have been few turnover; BTC has returned to above 80000, indicating that funds are becoming cautious.
Looking at the data change of 5/19 again (Figure 2), during the price decline, the 7.8w chip column not only did not decrease, but also increased.
The biggest change is the 7.6w one. When it broke through here last time, it was only about 200000 pieces, but when it fell back here this time, it became 38000 pieces.
Hey guys, do you understand?
It is obvious that the 7.8w funds that entered the market did not panic and flee due to falling below costs. When the price drops to 7.6w, there will be funds entering the market again, which is the attitude.
There is a saying that goes, 'The purpose of a rally is to make you feel cheap during a pullback.' Think about it, is that true?
In terms of chip structure, I personally believe that a reasonable retracement range would be roughly between $78000 and $66000.
As stated in the following quote (tweet from May 8th), a second step back into this range and changing hands again can give the structure stronger "resistance to impact" than before.
I don't know where to go.
But from the perspective of the attitude of the funds, someone started to intercept Hu at 7.6w, so what will happen at 6.6w?
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