US stock market: a miracle of continuous rise for 156 years Since 1776, all those who bet on the failure of the United States have ultimately ended up with their own disastrous defeat. So, will the US stock market collapse? meeting. This is an almost infallible judgment. But at least not in the short term. At most it's called a callback. Why? Because I have a correct rule: small cycles obey large cycles. 01) Small cycles obey large cycles This rule is simple and crude: the monetary cycle is greater than the industrial cycle, the industrial cycle is greater than the business cycle, the US cycle is greater than the Chinese cycle, and the policy cycle is greater than the economic cycle. When a cycle goes up and a cycle goes down, which cycle is larger is the main factor. In 2022, as the market opens up, many people are waiting for retaliatory consumption. I considered that the United States would almost certainly retaliate by raising interest rates, so I reconciled with the stock market and ran away. DeepSeek was launched, causing Nvidia to plummet for a while. I was thinking at the time: since the AI cycle has not been interrupted, it is almost impossible for Nvidia not to rise back. In China, the principle is basically to follow the national team and obey their commands. Before 2023, China's main source of fiscal revenue will be land finance, so the stock market will be in a long bear market where parents do not love each other. After 2023, although there have been many setbacks, the overall trend is on the rise. There's nothing we can do, the government can't afford to subsidize high-tech enterprises, so we can only let you hedge in the stock market. This is how small cycles follow large cycles. Why won't there be a collapse in the near future Because AI has become the national destiny of the United States. From enterprises to governments, from banks to private equity, most of the money is in AI. Last year, 65% of the $320 billion venture capital funds in the United States were in AI, and the vast majority did not withdraw. If the stock market crashes at this time, AI companies fail to go public, and American venture capital cannot climb up for ten years. This is one of the smallest issues caused by the collapse of the US stock market. Why can't AI companies go public when the stock market crashes? The reason is simple: a company that loses billions of dollars every year, if it cannot go public in some frenzy, then I don't even want it if you give it to me. In such a situation, the force that dares to attempt to cause the collapse of the US stock market will face resistance from all classes and individuals in the United States. The US stock market is in danger tomorrow, so tonight the Federal Reserve will work overtime to cut interest rates and expand its balance sheet. Is it important to control inflation or protect US stocks? They have their own discernment. So even if Iran pushes up oil prices, there is a mysterious force driving the US stock market to reach new highs. After all, small cycles must obey large cycles. The soaring oil prices are indeed a big problem, but the collapse of the US stock market will be even bigger. What force can overpower the United States On this planet, there is another force that can overwhelm the US monetary cycle, and that is China. If China does something, it could really cause the US stock market to lose support. But China is also striving to convert bonds into stocks. Do you think this is unfortunate? So, of course, the US stock market may collapse tomorrow, but the greater probability is to continue to maintain the AI frenzy and push the stock market to a higher point in the frenzy. Until most of the chips are transferred, all the capital involved in this game will receive some amount of money back. 04) Final step: Eliminate wealth Then the market will begin to eliminate wealth. Whether it is China or the United States, when this market task is completed, in order to avoid wealth expansion, they will definitely launch a large-scale wealth elimination. I don't know how big it is, I should say, I can't imagine how big it would be. There may be many variables in the previous steps. Only the last step, I am extremely certain. --- The US stock market will collapse, but not now. Now everyone is protecting it: the Federal Reserve, the government, Wall Street, Silicon Valley. Until the chip transfer is completed, until everyone receives the money back. Then, the game ends and wealth destruction begins. Wealth in life depends on Kang Bo... Brothers who understand naturally understand!