Leo's prediction is for 2024, which is almost two years away now. People seem more concerned about when AGI will arrive, since it could lead to widespread unemployment among white-collar workers. @leopoldasch says AGI won't have a sudden "pop" moment—it'll be gradual. Right now, AI is pretty much smashing through the ceiling on all standardized human tests, but very few people dare to say, 'This is AGI.' Altman thinks it's already here, Musk thinks it'll happen this year, and Anthropic's CEO Dario believes it'll arrive in 2026-2027. Anyway, it's just a year or two away~