小龙先生
小龙先生|Apr 01, 2026 00:45
Why is the period around April 6th a critical turning point for Bitcoin's midline trend market? Three dimensions are indispensable: 1、 The 'artificial suppression' of derivative structures has just been lifted On March 27th, approximately $14 billion in quarterly options expired, directly clearing 40% of Deribit's open positions. What does this mean? The previous "protection" focused on $60000 put options is gone, and the hand that was artificially pegged to the price has been released. After expiration, the market ran naked and was completely exposed to the two risks mentioned below. 2、 Trump's' Final Deadline 'for Iran Trump has extended the deadline for striking Iran's energy facilities until 8:00 PM Eastern Time on April 6th. White House Press Secretary Levitt said that this is a "deadline" and Iran must reach an agreement before then, otherwise there will be "serious consequences". The current situation is that both sides are talking while fighting, and the ground movements have not stopped. On April 6th, either the talks will collapse (with a high probability), or they will be postponed again (with wolves coming). Either way, the market will react violently. 3、 Macro data intensive bombardment On April 3rd, non farm payroll data was released, followed by CPI on April 10th. These two data directly determine the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations. Once the data becomes skewed towards an eagle, the US stock market crashes, Bitcoin follows suit, and geopolitical risks are added, that is resonance. In summary: On April 6th, it was the triple resonance point of the disappearance of derivative protection layer, the landing of geopolitical dead line, and the macro data window period. The market has been waiting for this catalyst for over 50 days. The main force of bears is sharpening their knives, waiting for this day. Let the bullets fly for a while, we'll see the outcome around April 6th. For detailed logical analysis and my personal trading strategy, please refer to the following article titled "Bitcoin Next Week Market Analysis: Tranquility Before the Storm, Hard Empty Above 69000
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