Sea|Mar 12, 2026 08:20
Bitwise's CIO posted an article the day before yesterday explaining why BTC could reach $1 million per coin.
Here’s how he calculated it:
1/ Currently, the 'store of value' market is worth less than $37.377 trillion, made up of gold at $35.984 trillion (>96%) and Bitcoin at $1.393 trillion (<4%).
2/ The journey of gold: When the first gold ETF launched in 2004, its market size was $2.5 trillion. Now, it’s grown to $35.984 trillion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.45%.
3/ Assuming this growth rate continues, in 10 years, the global 'store of value' market will reach: 37.377 × (1+13.45%)^10 = $132 trillion.
4/ During this process, it’s reasonable to believe BTC’s relative growth rate will surpass gold’s, capturing 1/6 of the market share. This would bring Bitcoin’s market cap to 132 × 1/6 = $22 trillion.
5/ Value per Bitcoin = $22 trillion / 21 million coins > $1 million.
Chart below ↓ Gold market cap from 2004 to now, data from the World Gold Council and Bloomberg.
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