As outlined in the 2026 outlook, the four-year cycle framework is very possible remains intact. If the historical four-year cycle continues to repeat, the next cycle low is expected in the second half of 2026, with the highest probability in Q4. The chart below illustrates this scenario by using data from the previous cycle to extrapolate potential price action. In the current cycle, Bitcoin did not experience a peak characterized by extreme euphoria, which suggests that the magnitude of the drawdown is likely to be smaller than what the historical comparison implies.(BloFin Research)