Is the implementation of interest rate cuts equivalent to the exhaustion of good news? Trump's "empathy" AI, the bull market in the currency circle will be stolen? Macro long short dual kill, policy fog heavy, will tonight be a bargain or a flight for life? Too long to watch version (TL; DR): Macro: PCE's positive news has been ignored, and the market has already set a price in advance for a December interest rate cut. Now, instead of panic, the FOMC is releasing an eagle, and the probability of a January 26 interest rate cut has plummeted. Politics: Trump's new national security strategy only mentions AI, not Crypto, and the market is afraid of his "change of heart". Now it all depends on his son and the chairman of SEC for assistance. 中国 Domestic: The seven associations' publication is actually a scam, not a cryptocurrency market; The negative premium of OTC is purely due to individual investors scaring themselves. Alpha (must see tonight): one ️⃣ Humidifi Public Fundraising: After the Bot's exit, real users have an opportunity, The limit of 1000U must be offset. two ️⃣ Stable TGE: Only available on second tier exchanges. If FDV hits around 1 billion, it can be connected. Refer to the trend of Monad. three ️⃣ Meme: Chain recovery, bankruptcy coins flying around, second level unable to play, still relying on local dogs to make a big profit. Here is a detailed review: Last Friday, the US released its September core PCE inflation data, which was once again lower than expected, further solidifying the probability of a rate cut this Thursday. At present, CME reports a probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut of 87.5%, while Polymarket reports a 93% probability. This data is definitely positive for the market and has led to a good performance of the US stock market on Friday, with the Nasdaq rising for four consecutive days and the S&P approaching a historic high. However, the trend of the cryptocurrency market is average because cryptocurrencies are more sensitive to policy expectations. The rebound in the cryptocurrency market last week has almost fully priced in the December interest rate cut, so PCE's data is not particularly favorable. On the contrary, Powell is likely to follow the example of "dovish interest rate cuts and hawkish speeches" in October at the FOMC meeting to balance the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve. This has led to a significant decrease in the expectation of a rate cut in January 2026. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in January on CME and Polymarket is only 25% and 27%, respectively. The cryptocurrency market is actually pricing ahead of the hawkish expectations of the FOMC meeting. Moreover, Trump did not mention cryptocurrency and blockchain in its national security strategy released on Friday. This is also the reason for the lack of confidence in the market. After all, everyone is expecting the Sichuan Universiade to bring the last good news to the currency market at the end of the year, helping the currency market out of the haze. But the government priorities mentioned in this security strategy did not include encryption, only mentioning artificial intelligence, biotechnology, quantum computing, and so on. So the currency circle felt that Chuanzi had changed his mind. Last week, he first called for a robot, and then added so many more. As a result, the encryption was leaked. I hope Trump's sons can give awesome this week. However, the chairman of the SEC was very awesome. At the weekend, he made a clear statement that the entire financial system would turn to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in a few years. Last week, he also said that the crypto market structure bill was about to be passed, and it seemed that the policy benefits were coming soon. There are several events worth paying attention to this week: The Cook case of the US Supreme Court: Today, there will be a debate on Trump's dismissal of Federal Trade Commission official Cook. This judgment is a test of Trump's power and determines how Trump controls the Federal Reserve and the Supreme Court. If Cook is kicked out, it will be a direct positive. Tariff Plan B: Trump may have realized that the "equivalent tariff" will be invalid, so he put forward Plan B on the media in advance, and his government is preparing to use other laws to maintain tariffs. Simultaneously competing for potential refunds that could exceed $100 billion, meaning that even if the lawsuit is lost, the tariffs already collected will not be refunded. As long as this money is still there, it is considered good news, and sooner or later it will be released into the market in some form. Over the weekend, there was another bad news in China. This time, seven associations, including the China Internet Finance Association, jointly issued a warning on the risk of illegal activities involving virtual currency. I looked at it mainly for RWA, stablecoins Pi、 Mining and other common people are heavily affected by scams. Rather than cracking down on virtual currencies, it is better to crack down on pyramid schemes and fraud that use cryptocurrencies as a cover, so the negative impact on the cryptocurrency market is actually limited. Especially last week when the 13th department just increased its recruitment, the response from the cryptocurrency market was that OTC USDT had a negative premium, mainly affecting U merchants and retail investors who are concerned about withdrawal risks. Lastly, regarding the market, the top priority tonight is the public offering of Humidifi. Previously, the robot booking had already been cleared, but this time the single number limit is 1000 USDC, with a total financing of 2M, which means 2000 numbers can be invested. After clearing the Bot, everyone still has a chance, so it's necessary to rush. Then Stable will have TGE tonight at 9 o'clock. However, like Monad, this project does not have official announcements for Binance or OK. Now there will be official announcements for second tier CEX platforms such as Bybit, KuCoin, and Gate. And the airdrop collection rules have not been released yet, it seems that the second and third tier CEX has made its debut again. The subsequent trend may need to refer to Monad. Polymarket expects an 85% probability of FDV exceeding 2B, and the current pre-market FDV is 3.8 billion. If there is a sell-off at the opening, around 1B can be considered. Over the weekend, a few Memes emerged, with Franklin FDV on the Sol chain reaching a peak of 17M and now 14M; Doyr on the BSC chain reaching a peak of 30M and now 5.7M; and $1 reaching a peak of 8M and now 1M. It's rare to see any improvement on the chain in recent weeks. Then LUNA, LUNC, USTC and other bankrupt concept coins took off over the weekend, and the Thunderstorm concept coin awakened. Over the weekend, Meme Fartcoin, B, Brett, and others have shown good trends. There's really nothing to play with second level knockoffs now, except for the Fat App project, the rest can only be hyped up by Meme. Let's work hard to make a big profit.